BasinMod Risk

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Product Overview

No one can predict with 100% certainty if a drilling prospect will be successful.

There are always uncertainties associated with parameters used in the evaluation of hydrocarbon potential.

What if you could assign uncertainty to geologic parameters and run thousands of model simulations to estimate the probability of hydrocarbon charge?

You can - with BasinMod Risk™

Platte River Associates, Inc., has developed an innovative risk assessment package that allows you to assign uncertainty to geologic parameters for charge and trap - in order to help determine the probability of a successful exploration effort. This is not just another Monte Carlo simulator, but is specifically designed to address exploration risk in the context of a petroleum system.

BasinMod Risk is easy to operate - it uses existing BasinMod 1-D model files, or you can create new 1-D models from your well data.

Product Features

Uncertainty:

Assign uncertainty to parameters using one of several probability distributions including lognormal, BetaPERT, triangular, discrete, etc.

Charge

Trap

Users can assign a probabilty distribution to HC charge and trap elements and processes, as well as presence/absence risk.

Input parameters:

Assign uncertainty to the following parameters:

Charge:
Lithology (Source Rock and Overburden), Rock Properties (Initial Porosity, Missing Thickness, Matrix Conductivity, Heat Capacity, etc.), Kerogen Type, Organofacies, Saturation Threshold, TOC, Initial HI, Source Area, Migration Efficiency, Heat Flow, Surface Temperature, and Geothermal Gradient.
Trap:
HC Saturation Potential, Oil and Gas Formation Volume Factor, Primary Recovery Factor, Reservoir Porosity, Reservoir Thickness, Net/Gross Thickness Ratio, Seal Efficiency for Gas and Oil, and Area of Closure. Multiple traps can be risked.
Risk:
Presence of organic matter in source units(s) and presence of reservoir, seal and structure.

Sampling:

Choose Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube sampling methods.

Correlation:

Assign correlation coefficients to the following input parameters:

Charge:
Area, Saturation Threshold, Initial HI, and TOC.
Trap:
Area, Gas or Oil Primary Recovery Factor, HC Saturation Potential, Net/Gross Thickness Ratio, Porosity, and Thickness.

Output:

Graphic displays include: probability density histograms, cumulative probability curves, rank correlation ("tornado" diagrams), scatter plots, value versus event (time) trend plots, value versus formation (depth) trend plots.

Measured Ro and Measured Temperature Calibration Error displayed on probability density, cumulative frequency, and scatter plots.

Export results and summary of input in text (report) form.

Explore the probabilities with BasinMod Risk™.

Probability density plot (histogram) showing the results of Monte Carlo sampling of Initial TOC. The user specified theoretical BetaPERT probability is shown in red.

Calculated maturity versus depth trend diagram showing measured vitrinite.

Spearman Rank-Order Correleation plot (tornado diagram) illustrating the effect of a single parameter on others.

Reverse cumulative probability plot showing a 30% probability of more than 46.48 MMcf Gas Recoverable Resources.

System requirements